GENE — Baseball +EV Model

GENE

BASEBALL +EV

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Games

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+EV Bets

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Best EV

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Avg EV

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High Conf

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MIN EV: 2%

EV % Color Tiers

8%+

Strong Edge

≥8% EV — highest conviction plays

4%+

Mid Edge

4–7.9% EV — solid value

2%+

Weak Edge

2–3.9% EV — marginal, use caution

neg

Negative EV

Book has the edge — avoid

Confidence Bar

70+

High Confidence

Strong signal alignment across factors

55+

Medium Confidence

Partial signal agreement

<55

Low Confidence

Mixed signals — higher variance

🔥

Hot Pick

EV ≥8% AND confidence ≥70%

Model Signal Weights

22%

ERA / FIP / xFIP

Pitcher quality adjusted for defense and luck

18%

wOBA / wRC+

Offensive quality weighted by run value

18%

Recent Form (L10)

Last 10 games momentum signal

15%

WHIP & K/9

Baserunners allowed and strikeout rate

12%

H2H History

Head-to-head historical win rate

8%

Park Factor

>1.0 hitter-friendly, <1.0 pitcher-friendly

7%

Weather / Wind

Live from Open-Meteo — wind out boosts totals

True Prob vs Implied

TP

True Probability

60% market fair odds + 40% signal model

IP

Implied Probability

Book odds converted to % with vig removed

EV

Expected Value %

(True Prob × Decimal Odds) − 1 × 100

$

Unit = $200

Fav: risk $200 to win proportional. Dog: risk $200 to win proportional.

MATCHUP ↕	TYPE	SIDE	ODDS	TRUE PROB	IMPLIED	EV %	CONF	RESULT	P/L
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All Time W

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All Time L

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Win %

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Total P/L

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ROI

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Avg EV

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